A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
